Markets

Daily Market Briefing

⚠️ URGENT: Iran partially blocking Strait of Hormuz — 20% of global oil supply at risk. WTI crude above $100. Trump says Iran agreed to release 20 more tankers starting Monday, but markets remain skeptical. Energy stocks your only friend today.

MARKET SNAPSHOT

US Futures (8:00 AM ET):

• S&P 500: +26.50 (+0.62%) — tentative bounce after Friday's selloff
• Dow: +198 (+0.62%) — energy gains offsetting tech weakness
• Nasdaq: +118 (+0.60%) — still bleeding from tech rout

Asia Close:

• Nikkei: 51,886 (-2.8%) — worst day in three months
• Hang Seng: 24,751 (-0.8%) — China relatively contained
• Shanghai: 3,923 (+0.2%) — only major index in green

Europe (Morning Trade):

• FTSE: +48 (+0.6%) — BP, Shell lifting London
• DAX: +15 (+0.1%) — barely positive
• CAC: flat — luxury names under pressure

Key Indicators:

• 10-Year Treasury: 4.39% (down 5 bps) — flight to safety
• VIX: 31.2 — fear gauge at 2026 highs
• WTI Crude: $104.80 — That's not a typo. $104.
• Gold: $2,847/oz — new all-time high
• Bitcoin: $91,250 — digital gold narrative back

TODAY'S CALENDAR

10:30 AM ET: Fed Chair Powell speaks at Harvard — markets desperate for dovish hints

Tuesday's Main Event:

• 8:30 AM: Case-Shiller Home Prices
• 9:00 AM: Consumer Confidence (exp: 102.5)
• After close: Nike (NKE) earnings — global consumer health check

Friday April 4:

• 8:30 AM: March Jobs Report — consensus +57K (February was -12K)

TOP 5 HEADLINES

1. Iran Threatens 5-Week Hormuz Blockade 📧

Revolutionary Guard says strait stays closed until "full withdrawal." Twenty percent of global oil transits here daily. Strategic Petroleum Reserve discussions in DC today. Why it matters: $5 gas by Memorial Day unless resolved. Client portfolios need energy hedges NOW.

2. Asian Markets Post Worst Day Since January

Nikkei shed 1,500 points as Japan considers military support role. Korea's won hit 15-year low. Why it matters: Risk-off contagion spreading fast. Watch for margin calls in leveraged tech names.

3. Gold Breaks $2,850 as Dollar Weakens

Physical demand surging from central banks and retail. Silver up 7% to $34.20. Why it matters: Traditional 60/40 portfolios getting crushed. Commodities only defensive play working.

4. Tech Earnings Season Starts Ugly

Micron guided down 15% on AI chip oversupply fears. NVDA below $800 pre-market. Why it matters: The everything bubble meets geopolitical reality. Valuations finally matter again.

5. Emergency Fed Meeting Rumors Swirl

Three Fed governors spotted at Treasury over weekend. No official comment. Why it matters: Last emergency cut was COVID. Market pricing 75% chance of inter-meeting move if oil hits $120.

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SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS

Oil above $100. Gold at all-time highs. Tech stocks in freefall. VIX above 30.

If your advisor is telling you "stay the course" right now, find a new advisor.

This isn't 2008 or 2020. This is a supply shock meets a valuation reset meets a geopolitical crisis. The playbook from the last 15 years won't work here.

Smart money is rotating hard: Out of growth, into energy and commodities. Out of bonds, into real assets. Out of hope, into hedges.

The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of global oil. Do the math on what happens to inflation if it stays closed.

What's your portfolio's energy allocation right now?

WTI crude: $104

Nasdaq: -12% in March

Gold: New ATH every day

But sure, keep buying the dip in unprofitable tech. How's that working out?